EVALUASI MODEL ALTMAN Z-SCORE PADA KONDISI NEGATIVE EQUITY: STUDI KASUS PT WIJAYA KARYA TAHUN 2025
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.66896/asset.1.02.2026.32Keywords:
Altman Z-Score, financial distress, PT Wijaya Karya, PKPUAbstract
This study analyzes the ability of the Altman Z-Score model in predicting financial distress at PT Wijaya Karya (Persero) Tbk from 2022 to 2025. The method employed is descriptive quantitative using documentation of audited annual consolidated financial statements. Data components include working capital, retained earnings, EBIT, market value equity, and net sales relative to total assets. The results indicate that WIKA's Z-Score consistently remained in the distress zone (Z < 1.81) for four consecutive years. In 2022, the Z-Score was recorded at 0.35, improved slightly to 0.43 in 2023, then declined to 0.30 in 2024 and collapsed to negative 0.06 in 2025. The three primary drivers of degradation were retained earnings shifting to negative reflecting negative equity conditions, consecutive negative EBIT signaling operational failure, and working capital erosion indicating liquidity pressure. The most significant finding is the three-year temporal gap between the early Z-Score warning signal (2022) and the filing of four PKPU claims (March 2025) along with trading suspension by the Indonesia Stock Exchange (late 2025). This gap demonstrates that Z-Score provides adequate early warning but was not optimally responded to by stakeholders. The model exhibits limitations in handling negative equity and implicit government guarantees typical of state-owned construction enterprises, yet the directional prediction signal remains valid.
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